SDP⇄MIA

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$86.4M net +11.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $51M expected surplus · +$54.4M realized received 3.6 ± 6 expected · 24.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trevor HoffmanP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$58.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 25.0

Prior

#288 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José MartínezP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrés BerumenP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#697 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$86.4M net -11.3

received +$72.8M+$72.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$32.0M realized received 9.5 ± 3 expected · 13.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1993 odds 1% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary SheffieldOF·24y·R/R

+$72.9M+$72.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$25.6M 9.1± 3 exp WARrealized 14.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

4.53/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rich RodriguezP·30y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.