OAK⇄CHC

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$125.6M net +19.3

received +$112.8M+$112.8M ± $45M expected surplus · +$125.6M realized received 7.9 ± 6 expected · 19.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1987 odds 13% → 26% (+12.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dennis EckersleyP·32y·R/R

+$114.5M+$114.5M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$125.6M 7.7± 5 exp WARrealized 19.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

2.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Dan Rohn2B/3B·31y·L/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.31 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Dallas Green net −$125.6M net -19.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1987 odds 6% → 3% (-3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave Wilder

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Brian Guinn

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Mark Leonette

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.