TEX⇄LAD

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$4.0M net +0.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dennis SantanaP·25y·R/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$4.0M net -0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2021 odds 97% → 97% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kelvin Bautista

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.