ARI⇄MIA

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$8.8M net +1.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2000 odds 25% → 30% (+4.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Danny BautistaOF·28y·R/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$8.8M net -1.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2000 odds 5% → 4% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy Fox2B/SS·29y·L/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.