ATL⇄MIA

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$0.8M net +0.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1995 odds 77% → 79% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alejandro PeñaP·36y·R/R

−$0.5M−$0.5M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$0.8M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1995 odds 13% → 12% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris SeelbachP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#101 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.