OAK⇄NYM

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$4.0M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2000 odds 40% → 41% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nelson CruzDH/OF·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$4.0M net -0.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2000 odds 58% → 57% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge Velandia2B/SS·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.