NYM⇄ANA

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kevin FloraOF·27y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#57 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.23/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Aaron LedesmaSS·25y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#57 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.