ATL⇄CLE

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$3.2M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2002 odds 46% → 47% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason FitzgeraldOF·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#41 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$3.2M net -0.3

received +$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2002 odds 3% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eddie PérezC·34y·R/R

+$0.8M−$0.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.