CHW⇄BOS

CHWCHW Roland Hemond net +$16.8M net +1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1985 odds 3% → 3% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Reid NicholsOF·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net −$16.8M net -1.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1985 odds 75% → 73% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim LollarP·29y·L/L

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$20.0M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.