TEX⇄WSN

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$8.8M net +2.6

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1990 odds 15% → 20% (+4.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Huson2B/SS·25y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Dave Dombrowski net −$8.8M net -2.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1990 odds 13% → 10% (-3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew HallP·27y·L/L

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.