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September 19, 2020

MIA⇄ARI

MIA won this trade +$40.8M surplus MIA won this trade +4.3 WAR
MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$40.8M net +4.3
received +$34.4M+$34.4M ± $11M expected surplus · +$33.6M realized received 2.7 ± 1 expected · 3.5 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2020 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Starling MarteOF·31y·R/R
+$34.1M+$34.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$33.6M 2.7± 1 exp WARrealized 3.5
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 4.0/yr over 2.3 seasons
Talent
2.70/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$40.8M net -4.3
received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $42M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 4.8 ± 5 expected · -0.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2020 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Caleb SmithP·28y·R/L
+$23.0M+$23.0M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.8
Prior
#434 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.4/yr over 1.5 season
Talent
0.88/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline
Humberto MejíaP·23y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Julio Frias
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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