ATL⇄STL

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$4.0M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1995 odds 76% → 79% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anton FrenchCF·19y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#368 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$4.0M net -0.6

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $33M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 4.4 ± 4 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1995 odds 3% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Oliva3B·24y·R/R

+$14.3M+$14.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 4.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 6.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.