KCR⇄PHI

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$29.6M net +3.8

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$31.2M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 4.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2001 odds 0% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul ByrdP·30y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$31.2M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 4.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$29.6M net -3.8

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2001 odds 26% → 24% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José SantiagoP·26y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#1627 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.