CHW⇄BOS

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1998 odds 5% → 5% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Corey JenkinsLF·21y·R/R

+$10.6M+$10.6M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#24 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1998 odds 77% → 77% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris Snopek3B/SS·27y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.