DET⇄NYY⇄OAK

DETDET Randy Smith net +$93.6M net +14.1

received +$36.0M+$36.0M ± $45M expected surplus · +$116.8M realized received 11.5 ± 6 expected · 17.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Peña1B·24y·L/L

+$25.8M+$25.8M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 7.8± 4 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

Composite #5.0 pedigree (Baseball America #5 (2002)) → 1.49/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

1.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeremy BondermanP·19y·R/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$120.0M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 15.6

Prior

#26 overall draft pick → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Franklyn GermánP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$13.6M net +0.1

received +$115.2M+$115.2M ± $32M expected surplus · +$23.2M realized received 8.2 ± 4 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2002 odds 96% → 97% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff WeaverP·25y·R/R

+$115.3M+$115.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$23.2M 8.2± 4 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.74/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$80.0M net -14.2

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $41M expected surplus · +$36.8M realized received 6.3 ± 5 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2002 odds 80% → 79% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ted LillyP·26y·L/L

+$13.8M+$13.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 2.2± 4 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

#356 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John-Ford GriffinDH/OF·22y·L/L

+$9.5M+$9.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#23 overall draft pick → 0.51/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jason ArnoldP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#63 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.