PHI⇄CHW

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net −$9.6M net +1.0

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 4.3 ± 4 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2007 odds 64% → 69% (+5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tadahito Iguchi2B·32y·R/R

+$24.6M+$24.6M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 4.3± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.53/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$9.6M net -1.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2007 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael DubeeP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#547 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.