MIL⇄CHW

MILMIL David Stearns net +$0.0M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2018 odds 54% → 57% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joakim SoriaP·34y·R/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.0M net -0.5

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $46M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.3 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2018 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kodi MedeirosP·22y·L/L

+$27.6M+$27.6M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.1± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#12 overall draft pick → 0.69/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Wilber Perez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.