CHW⇄ARI

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$0.8M net +0.6

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2009 odds 4% → 5% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony PeñaP·27y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net +$0.8M net -0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2009 odds 12% → 9% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon Allen1B·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#149 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.