OAK⇄CLE

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.0M net +1.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2002 odds 76% → 79% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ricardo RincónP·32y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$0.0M net -1.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2002 odds 3% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marshall McDougall3B·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#270 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.