CIN⇄KCR⇄STL

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$7.2M net +0.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Andre KingOF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$2.4M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1996 odds 4% → 4% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike RemlingerP·30y·L/L

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#16 overall draft pick → 0.53/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.23 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$9.6M net -1.3

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $38M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 2.4 ± 5 expected · -1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1996 odds 27% → 25% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel MejíaOF·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Luis Ordaz2B/SS·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.