ARI⇄NYY

ARIARI Jerry Dipoto net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2011 odds 55% → 55% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Miranda1B·28y·L/L

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2011 odds 95% → 95% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scottie AllenP·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#336 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.