OAK⇄ANA

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$1.6M net +0.9

received +$4.0M+$1.6M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2020 odds 39% → 53% (+14.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy La Stella2B/3B·31y·L/R

+$3.6M+$2.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.96/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net −$1.6M net -0.9

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2020 odds 28% → 18% (-10.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Franklin Barreto2B/SS·24y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

Composite #54.5 pedigree (Baseball America #43 (2018) / MLB Pipeline #66 (2018)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.