OAK⇄STL

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$239.2M net +20.8

received +$28.8M+$28.8M ± $50M expected surplus · +$248.0M realized received 6.8 ± 6 expected · 22.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2005 odds 34% → 49% (+15.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Daric Barton1B·19y·L/R

+$15.0M+$15.0M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$35.2M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized 7.7

Prior

Composite #32.0 prospect (Baseball America #32 (2005)) → 0.72/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dan HarenP·24y·R/R

+$12.1M+$12.1M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$207.2M 1.9± 4 exp WARrealized 12.2

Prior

#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kiko CaleroP·30y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

#799 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$239.2M net -20.8

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $19M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 3.9 ± 2 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2005 odds 71% → 57% (-14.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark MulderP·27y·L/L

+$38.4M+$38.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 3.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.58/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.