PHI⇄TBR

PHIPHI Ned Rice net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2020 odds 11% → 14% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rodolfo Sanchez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2020 odds 68% → 62% (-5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edgar GarcíaP·23y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.