CHW⇄PIT

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$4.0M net +0.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Barry JonesP·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Larry Doughty net −$4.0M net -0.3

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1988 odds 24% → 28% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave LaPointP·28y·L/L

+$8.5M+$8.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.