CHW⇄BAL

CHWCHW Larry Himes net −$4.8M net +0.2

received +$21.6M+$20.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 2.7 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1990 odds 19% → 20% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil BradleyOF·31y·R/R

+$21.8M+$21.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$4.8M net -0.2

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1990 odds 5% → 5% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ron KittleDH/OF·32y·R/R

+$4.4M+$3.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.