DET⇄ATL

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $40M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2009 odds 10% → 10% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh AndersonOF·26y·L/R

+$19.2M+$19.2M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.7± 5 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#119 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.68/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2009 odds 52% → 51% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rudy DarrowP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#952 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.