CLE⇄MIL

CLECLE John Hart net +$14.4M net +1.4

received −$9.6M−$9.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1998 odds 52% → 54% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Doug JonesP·41y·R/R

−$9.8M−$9.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.27/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$14.4M net -1.4

received −$9.6M−$9.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1998 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric PlunkP·34y·R/R

−$9.7M−$9.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.