LAD⇄OAK

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$5.6M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1991 odds 35% → 38% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave VeresP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net −$5.6M net -0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1991 odds 6% → 6% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin CampbellP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#126 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.