PIT⇄CLE

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $47M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 6.1 ± 6 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1992 odds 25% → 27% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex ColeOF·26y·L/L

+$33.4M+$33.4M± $47M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 6.1± 6 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1992 odds 6% → 5% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony MitchellOF·21y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#883 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.