KCR⇄ANA

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$19.2M net +2.7

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $6M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2013 odds 15% → 24% (+9.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ervin SantanaP·30y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$19.2M net -2.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2013 odds 16% → 9% (-6.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon Sisk

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.