ATL⇄KCR

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$11.2M net +1.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2005 odds 59% → 65% (+5.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge VásquezP·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$11.2M net -1.0

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2005 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eli MarreroC/OF·31y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.