OAK⇄ARI

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2017 odds 3% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeferson Mejia

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2017 odds 70% → 68% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam Rosales2B/3B/SS·34y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.80/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.