LAD⇄NYM

LADLAD Tommy Lasorda net +$10.4M net +1.1

received −$14.4M−$15.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1999 odds 14% → 17% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mel RojasP·32y·R/R

−$14.6M−$15.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$10.4M net -1.1

received −$14.4M−$14.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$27.2M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 77% → 73% (-4.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bobby Bonilla3B/OF·36y·B/R

−$14.2M−$14.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$27.2M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.23/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.