WSN⇄MIN

WSNWSN Dave Dombrowski net −$1.6M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1989 odds 12% → 12% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim DwyerOF·39y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$1.6M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1989 odds 8% → 8% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alonzo PowellOF·24y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.