ARI⇄CHW

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net +$12.8M net +1.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2006 odds 6% → 6% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff BajenaruP·28y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#375 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$12.8M net -1.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$15.2M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2006 odds 33% → 34% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex CintrónSS·27y·B/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.