CHC⇄DET

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jon Connolly

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Eric EckenstahlerP·27y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#957 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Félix SánchezP·22y·R/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.