SDP⇄MIA

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$137.6M net +0.1

received +$87.2M+$50.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$180.8M realized received 6.1 ± 3 expected · 10.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 5% → 33% (+28.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin BrownP·33y·R/R

+$87.4M+$50.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$180.8M 6.1± 3 exp WARrealized 10.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.40/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

4.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$137.6M net -0.1

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $49M expected surplus · +$43.2M realized received 7.6 ± 6 expected · 9.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1998 odds 1% → 0% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derrek Lee1B·22y·R/R

+$11.1M+$11.1M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$48.0M 3.8± 4 exp WARrealized 10.6

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.57/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rafael MedinaP·23y·R/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

Composite #72.0 prospect (Baseball America #72 (1998)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve HoffP·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#397 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.