KCR⇄OAK

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$12.0M net +1.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1999 odds 2% → 3% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jay WitasickP·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#58 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$12.0M net -1.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1999 odds 38% → 32% (-5.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott ChiassonP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#137 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.