DET⇄PIT

DETDET Randy Smith net +$12.8M net +1.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roberto NovoaP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Adrian Burnside

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net −$12.8M net -1.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2003 odds 6% → 7% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randall Simon1B·28y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.