TBR⇄MIL

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net +$16.0M net +2.7

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $39M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 4.1 ± 5 expected · 2.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2008 odds 76% → 84% (+7.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gabe GrossOF·28y·L/R

+$21.8M+$21.8M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 4.1± 5 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

1.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$16.0M net -2.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2008 odds 49% → 37% (-11.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh ButlerP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#47 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.