HOU⇄NYM

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$123.2M net +9.4

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$121.6M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · 9.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1998 odds 88% → 94% (+6.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl EverettOF·27y·B/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$121.6M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 9.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.33/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net −$123.2M net -9.4

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 21% → 10% (-10.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John HudekP·31y·B/R

−$1.5M−$1.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.23/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.