SDP⇄ANA

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$122.4M net +18.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $31M expected surplus · +$113.6M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 16.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1999 odds 2% → 6% (+4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Keith VolkmanP·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#601 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Phil Nevin1B/3B·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$113.6M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 16.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.77/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$122.4M net -18.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $33M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.7 ± 4 expected · -1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1999 odds 4% → 1% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gus KennedyOF·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#874 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andy SheetsSS·27y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.