PIT⇄NYY

PITPIT Roy Smith net +$18.4M net +5.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $27M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dámaso MarteP·26y·L/L

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$18.4M net -5.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · −$19.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2001 odds 61% → 61% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Enrique Wilson2B/3B/SS·27y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$19.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -2.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.