TBR⇄PIT

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$9.6M net +1.9

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2023 odds 91% → 94% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robert StephensonP·30y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$9.6M net -1.9

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2023 odds 3% → 2% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alika WilliamsSS·24y·R/R

+$2.9M+$2.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.