MIL⇄CHC

MILMIL Sal Bando net +$3.2M net +1.8

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $23M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1994 odds 2% → 3% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob ScanlanP·27y·R/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Larry Himes net −$3.2M net -1.8

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1994 odds 5% → 3% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Carter

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Rafael NovoaP·26y·L/L

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#230 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.