ANA⇄MIL

ANAANA Mike Port net +$0.0M net +0.9

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1989 odds 52% → 55% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bill SchroederC·30y·R/R

+$6.5M+$6.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Harry Dalton net +$0.0M net -0.9

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1989 odds 3% → 3% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gus Polidor3B/SS·27y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.49/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.