DET⇄LAD

DETDET Jerry Walker net −$24.0M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$24.0M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1993 odds 15% → 17% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric DavisOF·31y·R/R

+$0.1M+$0.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$24.0M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.80/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$24.0M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1993 odds 6% → 5% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John DeSilvaP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#211 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.