DET⇄ATL

DETDET Joe McDonald net +$5.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1991 odds 36% → 37% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Víctor Rosario2B/SS·24y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$5.6M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$2.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1991 odds 11% → 10% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan PetryP·32y·R/R

−$1.6M−$2.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.