ATL⇄PIT

ATLATL Bobby Cox net +$12.0M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $46M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.0 ± 6 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy Gregg1B/OF·24y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.0± 6 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#164 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Larry Doughty net −$12.0M net -0.1

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$20.8M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1988 odds 29% → 28% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ken Oberkfell2B/3B·32y·L/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$20.8M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.